UMG:EURONEXT AMSTERDAMUniversal Music Group N.V. Analysis
Data as of 2026-06-11 - not real-time
$20.48
Latest Price
6/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Universal Music Group trades around $20.48, well above its DCF-derived fair value of roughly $12, and its PE multiple (~21.6x) exceeds the industry average (~16.9x), indicating a premium valuation. The company posted flat Q1 revenue, a modest 5% YoY growth, and maintains a solid dividend yield of 3.19% with a payout ratio near 63%, supported by strong operating cash flow and a ROE above 30%. Recent material news highlights an active share‑buyback program (over €21.6 m repurchased in early May) and the ongoing monetization of its Spotify stake, which together provide upside support despite the current overvaluation.
Technical indicators show a neutral price trend, a bearish MACD divergence, and an RSI around 37, suggesting limited short‑term upside while volume is increasing. Investors should weigh the attractive dividend and cash generation against the premium price and flat top‑line growth when forming a view.
Technical indicators show a neutral price trend, a bearish MACD divergence, and an RSI around 37, suggesting limited short‑term upside while volume is increasing. Investors should weigh the attractive dividend and cash generation against the premium price and flat top‑line growth when forming a view.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 6/10
Key Factors
- Bearish MACD histogram indicating downward momentum
- RSI approaching oversold levels (≈37)
- Increasing volume providing potential support
Medium Term
1–3 yearsNeutral
Model confidence: 5/10
Key Factors
- Active €500 m share‑buyback programme supporting price
- Stable dividend yield and strong cash flow
- Flat revenue growth limiting upside
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- High ROE and robust cash generation underpinning dividend sustainability
- Secular growth of streaming and music publishing revenues
- Brand strength and diversification across recorded music, publishing, and merchandising
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth5.00%
Profit Margin12.26%
P/E Ratio21.6
ROE33.78%
ROA7.67%
Debt/Equity74.58
P/B Ratio7.1
Op. Cash Flow$1.7B
Free Cash Flow$1.6B
Industry P/E16.9
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI36.8
Support$20.10
Resistance$24.78
MA 20$22.50
MA 50$22.46
MA 200$24.58
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index84.3
Valuation
Fair Value$12.16
GradeOvervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield3.19%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.90
Volatility44.53%
Sector RiskMedium
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskLow
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskMedium
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.